CMIP5 Projected Changes in the Annual Cycle of Indian Monsoon Rainfall

Indian Monsoon Rainfall

Advancing Indian Monsoon Rainfall Predictions

Despite great strides made in seasonal climate forecasting using dynamical models, skill in predicting the Indian monsoon is woefully poor. Our analysis of the reasons for failure exposes a flaw in the popular design of dynamical prediction systems. The approach of driving atmospheric models with a projected ocean surface temperature presupposes Indian monsoon variability to be a consequence so...

Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall

This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ESD if available. Abstract The possibility of an impact of global warming on the Indian monsoon is of critical importance for the large population of this region. Future projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP-3) showed a...

The Rainfall Annual Cycle Bias over East Africa in CMIP5 Coupled Climate Models

East Africa has two rainy seasons: the long rains [March–May (MAM)] and the short rains [October– December (OND)]. Most CMIP3/5 coupled models overestimate the short rains while underestimating the long rains. In this study, the East African rainfall bias is investigated by comparing the coupled historical simulations from CMIP5 to the corresponding SST-forced AMIP simulations. Much of the inve...

Advancing dynamical prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall

[1] Despite advances in seasonal climate forecasting using dynamical models, skill in predicting the Indian monsoon by such methods has proven poor. Our analysis identifies a flaw in the hitherto popular design of prediction systems in which atmospheric models are driven with a projected ocean surface temperature. Such a configuration presupposes Indian monsoon variability to be a consequence s...